According to the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) director-general Dr Balram Bhargava, no mathematical model has accurately speculated the course of the coronavirus spread so far. He suggested that in such a case, India should only focus on the containment of the virus and its prevention by testing tracking and treating, Livemint reported.

The director said in an interview that mathematical modelling could not be comprised of all the factors responsible for the spread of the virus. “They might give an idea about best and worst possible scenarios for nations to prepare their health infrastructure,” he said as cited in the Mint report.

Looking at the unprecedented daily surge in cases, the mathematical model that was used to forecast the peak of the virus has been proven wrong.

According to some government models, the peak would end in July, and others said that the epidemic in India would be over by May-June. Some mathematical models have also predicted that the Covid-19 curve has flattened in India, but the predictions are not in line with real-time data.

ICMR stressed on the importance of testing and has ramped up its daily testing to more than 200,000. In the past 24 hours, 231,095 samples were tested, taking the total count to 8,227,802, as per the Livemint report.

“Test, track and treat is the only way to prevent the spread of the infection and save lives. This has been the approach used by us till now. It is being strengthened further. All the relevant measures are being taken to save lives and prevent disease spread,” Bhargava said.

“Being a novel virus, the challenges are ample in front of us. We are trying hard to understand the virus, its virulence, its immune response, its epidemiology,” he said.

So far, India has a recovery rate of 58.56 per cent with more than 320,000 Covid-19 positive patients have recovered. During the past 24 hours, almost 14,000 Covid-19 patients have recuperated from the disease, while 209,662 active cases are under intense medical supervision, health ministry data showed.

“One thing is very clear—until a drug or vaccine is developed, good hygiene practices like social distancing, use of mask, hand washing, cough etiquettes are the way to move forward,” Bhargava said.


9 thought on “Mathematical models havent accurately speculated course of Covid-19 ICMR Chief”
  1. I simply wanted to appreciate you yet again. I am not sure the things I would have followed in the absence of the actual methods shown by you concerning my subject matter. Certainly was a real intimidating problem in my circumstances, nevertheless witnessing a new professional strategy you solved it took me to jump for delight. I’m happy for your guidance and as well , have high hopes you find out what a powerful job you were doing teaching the rest via a site. I am sure you haven’t come across any of us.

  2. Needed to create you one little remark to help thank you so much yet again regarding the marvelous thoughts you have shown in this case. It’s really tremendously open-handed of you to supply unhampered all that many people could possibly have supplied as an ebook to earn some dough for their own end, and in particular now that you could possibly have tried it if you considered necessary. These techniques as well acted to provide a great way to understand that other people online have the same eagerness much like my personal own to know the truth a little more with regards to this problem. I am sure there are numerous more enjoyable times ahead for individuals who view your site.

  3. I precisely had to thank you so much once more. I do not know the things that I would have tried in the absence of those strategies revealed by you relating to my concern. It truly was a terrifying condition in my circumstances, however , discovering a skilled fashion you managed the issue made me to jump with joy. I will be happy for your guidance and as well , believe you know what a powerful job that you’re carrying out teaching the others through your blog post. Most probably you’ve never come across all of us.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *